微博营销的扩散与演化路径的建模分析研究(Python)(任务书,开题报告,论文25000字,参考程序代码)
摘要
21世纪以来，以微博为代表的网络社交平台席卷了人们的日常生活，成为一个重要的信息传播渠道。本论文选取微博发布时间、用户属性、微博特征等多维度指标，对各类话题进行对比分析，研究微博在广度和深度的扩散潜在规律。通过编写python爬虫程序采集数据，excel存储数据，R语言统计分析、logistic建模的一系列手段，得出了多个结论。在扩散广度上，微博在不同性别上的扩散程度不仅和话题的类别有关，也和话题的具体内容相关，比如，在对武汉马拉松话题的统计中，女性发布微博占比比男性更大，反映随着生活水平的提高，女性为了健康或者塑造更好的体型，对于健身和运动方面愈发关注，甚至超过男性。微博扩散来源从高到低主要来源于手机、浏览器、秒拍app，并且各自以iphone、360浏览器、秒拍网页版领先。用户等级以9级和14级的扩散效果最明显，且大部分为未认证的普通用户。在扩散深度上，发现用户对粉丝数、微博携带图片数普遍有助于提高微博的转发率，其次为微博视频数，其它指标对不同话题下微博转发率的影响效果不一。
关键词：微博 扩散 时间 用户属性 微博特征
Abstract
Since the 21st century, the social networking platform, which is represented by microblogs, has swept People's Daily lives and become an important channel for information dissemination.This paper analysis the spread of microblog potential law under the different topics, first from the exploration on the breadth of microblogs of a topic in time, source, gender, user level , so as to analyze the law of diffusion process in different topics , also reflects the characteristics of the target user. Secondly, the factors that influence the diffusion of microblogs in different topics are explored in depth. Forward diffusion degree in microblog, influence factor from time, user's attributes, microblog characteristics such as multidimensional perspective, probing into the cause of the driven of users forward microblog, thereby providing the reference to the enterprise marketing strategy on the microblogging platform. This paper selected seven topics, which contains both entirely different and similar topics, crawling 2800 for each topic. According to the analysis shows that the spread of microblog on different gender is not only related to subject categories, also the specific contents of the subject, for example, in the wuhan marathon topic statistics, Women post weibo accounts is more than men, reflect with the improvement of living standards, women's self consciousness gradually strengthened, in order to shape healthy or better shape, they pay more attention in fitness and sports, even more than men.. The micro blog's source from high to low comes from mobile phones, browsers, and miaopai app, and the iphone, 360 and the web version of miaopai leads in each class. And users rank 9 and 14, are the highest of all levels, and most of them are unauthenticated ordinary users. On the diffusion depth, found the user number of fans, images commonly help improve the reweeting rate, followed by audio, other indicators of the impact of reweeting rate under different topics have different effects.
Keywords：microblogging ;diffusion; time; user’s attribute; microblog’s feature
目录
第1章绪论 1
1.1选题背景 1
1.2目的及意义 1
1.3国内外研究现状 2
1.4本文创新点 3
第2章研究内容 5
2.1数据说明 5
2.2研究问题 8
2.2.1 研究问题概述 8
2.2.2 微博在广度上的扩散规律 9
2.2.3 微博在深度上的扩散规律 9
第3章研究技术路线 12
3.1技术路线概述 12
3.2基于网络爬虫的微博数据收集 12
3.3EXCEL数据存储 14
3.4基于R语言的数据处理及分析 14
3.5基于Angular js、echart js的网页结果展示 15
3.5.1 Angular js 介绍 15
3.5.2 Echart.js介绍 16
3.6研究模型 17
3.6.1 研究模型概述 17
3.6.2 Logistic回归模型 17
第4章数据采集和存储 19
4.1数据采集说明 19
4.2Python爬取流程 19
4.2.1 代码结构 19
4.2.2 代码运行 19
4.3Excel数据存储 20
第5章微博在广度上的扩散分析结果 21
5.1微博在用户性别的扩散分析 21
5.2微博用户认证情况分析 22
5.3微博用户等级分析 26
5.4微博发布来源分析 28
5.5微博发布时间分析 32
第6章微博在深度上的扩散规律分析 35
6.1数据初步查看 35
6.2Logistic建模 38
6.3建模结果分析 47
第7章基于angular js和echart.js的网页展示 49
7.1代码结构 49
7.2运行流程 51
第8章微博营销的案例分析 58
8.1选取话题对于微博营销的意义 58
8.2根据研究规律对微博营销的建议 59
8.2.1 基于广度扩散规律的建议 59
8.2.2 基于深度扩散规律的建议 60
结论 61
参考文献 63
致谢 66
附录 67
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